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Outlook 2060: Demographic-Economic Patterns, Characteristics & Change

  -- insights into what, how, when and where demographic change; 2010 to 2060

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Over the next forty years, the United States will experience continued growth in its older population and a large increase in racial and ethnic diversity. School age population will grow in many counties and shrink in others (notes below). The pace and extent of these changes will be shaped in part by the level of net international migration as well as county to county migration. Knowing more about what the future might hold is essential to planning today to meet those needs and opportunities.

Outlook 2060
This website is focused on demographic-economic patterns, characteristics and change. Using resources available here, we focus on on creating and applying insights into what, how, when and where demographic-economic change will occur between now and 2060.

U.S. Population Projections to 2060. The U.S. population ages 65 and over is expected to more than double between now and 2060, from 43.5 million to 92.0 million (interactive table). How will this population, and other age groups, be distributed by state and metro? Find out more about this topic and related demographic-economic trends. Join us in a one-hour Web session -- register here.

U.S. Population 1900–2060 with alternative scenarios
  .. Population Projections to 2060 by Immigration Scenario (millions)
  .. The U.S. population would shrink under a zero immigration scenario.

Outlook 2060 Estimates & Projections Overview
Outlook 2060 is a set of demographic-economic estimates and projections for the period 2000 through 2060 at the national, state and county levels for the United States resident population by age, gender, race, and Hispanic origin. The Outlook 2060 estimates and projections are developed by ProximityOne and are updated annually. Outlook 2060 estimates and projections make use of Census 2000, Census 2010, annual American Community Survey estimates and a wide range of other data. The Outlook 2060 estimates and projections are updated annually.

Sector Focus
Outlook 2060 is focused on these sectors:
  • Demographic: Population and Housing - details
  • Education: K-20 Participation and Attainment - details
  • Labor Force: Employment and Earnings - details
  • Productivity: Output and Trade - details
  • Fiscal: Government Revenue and Expenditures - details

Demographic: Population and Housing
Estimates and projections are developed for the resident population and demographic components of change (births, deaths, and migration). The estimates/projections are developed by age, gender, race, and Hispanic origin for each year from July 1, 2000 to July 1, 2060. The projections are based on Census 2000, Census 2010 and annual American Community Survey estimates. The estimates/projections are developed using a cohort-component method and associated demographic-economic cause and effect simultaneous equations.

Housing items include total housing units, occupied units (owner-occupied, renter-occupied), vacant units and units in structure (single unit, 2 units, 3-19 units, 20 units or more).

The methodology makes use of county level models. Estimates and projections are developed at the county level and aggregated to the state and national and other levels. The county level models follow a generic structure but each county model can be modified to reflect a specification unique to that county. County-specific trends in fertility, mortality and migration are used.

The generic county model makes use of the population identity equation:

  P[i,a,g,r,t] = P[i,a,g,r,t-1] + B[i,a,g,r,t] - D[i,a,g,r,t] + MD[i,a,g,r,t] +MI[i,a,g,r,t]

    where B[i,a,g,r,t] =0 for a>=1 (births only in age 0 cohort)

Total population for any single county, gender, race/origin, year is determined by summing over age (a).

Equation Terms; Race/Origin Groups (scroll box)
  P   Population
  B   births
  D   deaths
  MD   domestic migration
  MI   international migration
  i   geographic area
  a   age -- <1, 1, 2, ... 100, 100 years and over>
  g   gender
  r   race/origin
    Total Population
      Population, one race alone
        White alone
        Black or African American alone
        American Indian and Alaska Native alone
        Asian alone
        Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone
        Some Other Race alone
      Two or More Races
    Hispanic or Latino Population (of any race)
  t   time/year

Scope of Table Datasets
There are 3,143 tables (each county) having the above structure iterated for each of 15 race/origin groups (47,145 table datasets) plus aggregates of these county datasets for each metro, state and the U.S. Each all-U.S. variation using a different scenario (e.g., migration structure, alternative mortality rates, alternative fertility rates) doubles this scope of data.

Developing Insights
Aggregating single year of age data in the above table shows that the 5-to-17 year of age K-12 school population Harris County, Texas (Houston area) changes from 703,195 (Census 2000) to 811,251 (Census 2010) to 1,158,403 (in 2060). Using education participation rates, these data provide insights into projected enrollment by grade (by gender by race/origin) to facilitate education resource planning.

Table Usage Notes
Each row corresponds to an age group (mostly a single year of age)
Each three column set corresponds to a year: male+female ... male ... female
Years are annual and run 2000 through 2060
Data for Census 2000 and Census 2010 are as of April 1, all other data are as of July 1

Column headers follow the template GYY-N where:
  - G -- gender: T, M, or F
  - YY -- year (00 indicates 2000)
  - N -- column sequence
Census 2000 headers appear as: CT00-1 CM00-2 CM00-3
Census 2010 headers appear as: CT10-34 CM10-35 CM10-36

Model Specifications & Time Series
A model, in the sense used here, refers to a set of mathematical-statistical equations that together simultaneously determine values for jointly dependent variables. These time series models are designed to reflect cause and effect relationships as they occur in the real world.

For each county there are model specifications that differ slightly for three time periods. Intercensal estimates are developed for the period 2000 to 2010 to develop a consistent annual time series from 2000 to 2060. The 2000 to 2010 estimates start with Census 2000 as the base year. The 2000 to 2010 intercensal estimates help serve as a validation with regard to how accurately they predict Census 2010 results without using Census 2010 data.

Post Census 2010 estimates and projections use model specifications that differ slightly for the periods 2010 to 2030 and 2031 to 2060. During the period 2010 to 2030 there are supplemental sectors/simultaneous equations that determine migration. Migration, a function of many variables varying from county to county, is determined through use of cause and effect equations in the models. The change in county to county origin-destination patterns over time is reflected in the model. For the period 2031 to 2060, migration is determined based on a set of assumptions and trends determined for the period 2010 to 2030.

Following tradition, all estimates and projections are as of July 1 in the corresponding year. The Census 2000 and Census 2010 data are as of April 1 and are also carried in the Outlook 2060 database.

Education: K-20 Participation and Attainment
Education participation projections are based on projections of the future size and composition of the population, as well as on the trends in education participation rates of different age, gender, race/ethnic groups.

Labor Force: Employment and Earnings
Labor force projections are based on projections of the future size and composition of the population, as well as on the trends in labor force participation rates of different age, gender, race/ethnic groups. Projections of the resident population are developed using the specifications described above. Additional equations in the model develop the civilian noninstitutional population projections. The size and composition of the population affect not only the labor force projections, but the projected aggregate economy and demand for workers in various industries and occupations.

Participation rate projections are developed for each age, gender, race/ethnicity group and multiplied by the corresponding projection of the civilian noninstitutional population to obtain the labor force projection for each group. The groups are then summed to obtain the total civilian labor force.

Productivity: Output and Trade
Projections of output are based on projections of the future size and composition of the labor force, productivity measures as well as on the trends in productivity.

Fiscal: Government Revenue and Expenditures
Local governmental units are associated with counties. Projections of revenues and expenditures are based on projections of the future size and composition of the population, as well as on the trends in governmental finances relating to different age, gender, race/ethnic groups.

Alternative Scenario Projections
One set estimates and projections is developed annually following the most likely set of assumptions. The ProximityOne Modeler software and associated Situation & Outlook database can be used to develop alternative scenario estimates and projections.

The Outlook 2060 summary reports provide an overview of trends and patterns between 2000 and 2060. Selected summary data from Outlook 2060 estimates and projections are included in an updated interactive ranking table similar to the presently existing Demographics 2020 (extended to include projections to 2030).

Subscription, on-demand and datasets are available on a fee basis. Contact us for more information (mention Outlook2060) or call (888)364-7656.

Support Using these Resources
Learn more about accessing and using demographic-economic data and related analytical tools. Join us in a Data Analytics Lab session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants.

ProximityOne User Group
Join the ProximityOne User Group to keep up-to-date with new developments relating to metros and component geography decision-making information resources. Receive updates and access to tools and resources available only to members. Use this form to join the User Group.

Additional Information
ProximityOne develops geodemographic-economic data and analytical tools and helps organizations knit together and use diverse data in a decision-making and analytical framework. We develop custom demographic/economic estimates and projections, develop geographic and geocoded address files, and assist with impact and geospatial analyses. Wide-ranging organizations use our tools (software, data, methodologies) to analyze their own data integrated with other data. Follow ProximityOne on Twitter at Contact us (888-364-7656) with questions about data covered in this section or to discuss custom estimates, projections or analyses for your areas of interest.

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